Whom should I believe?

First of all, my big thanks for the overwhelming responses with interest to my DW Family idea. I really appreciate your interest and trust in me, which makes me really humbled. Unfortunately I'm running into a big headache right now. I cannot effectively send email to you as of now and that's why you haven't heard much from me in the past two days. It really sucks! Apparently nowadays with the extremely widespread SPAM for emails, it becomes a norm for all the major email systems to cap the volume limit of sending email on a daily basis, even hourly. Sending emails in bulk is especially suspicious and I'm basically blocked each day in trying to send emails with a long list of recipients. I'm even trying a paid service but after paying the fees, it turned out to be the same rules in this regard. So I'm kind of stuck for now and still struggling to figure out a better way to overcome this challenge. So bear with me for now if you don't hear from me directly via email. Believe me I'm actively trying but apparently need some time to solve the problem. I don't want to use WeChat for now for a reason. If some IT savvy friends know some good tips about sending emails in bulk without much SPAM risk, please shoot me an email. I can still receive emails. I wish to get this resolved ASAP as I have a very time-sensitive idea to share with a great potential. I hope the opportunity will still be available when I can effectively communicate via email.


Now back to the market, I don't think I need to be long for what I'm thinking. Yes, S&P has broken out to an all time high today with highly elated sentiment in the market. I'm indeed proven to be too early or you can call I'm wrong so far for being bearish as I wrote last week. No need for sugar-coating. But here is the thing. While the market in general is in some sort of short-term extreme euphoric mood with crazy bullishness, virtually all the major TA indicators have run into extremely overbought conditions at least for now. Just show you one example that I have been watched closely with very accurate track record in the past couple of years: the VIX traders (the smart money for me). Right now, the C/P option ratio for next Wed is about 10, meaning they are expecting in just a few days, VIX will be shooting higher significantly 10 times more likely than lower. In about 4 weeks from now, it is 35 times more likely. We rarely see this kind of extremely odds in favor one than the other and as far as I can recall, they have always been right for the past few years when extremes are hit. So who should I believe this time? You can bet that I'm definitely with the smart money! I'm adding more positions for long VIX via VXX. In addition, early this week I was buying IWM next week puts to short Russell 2000. Since I was early it is quite under the water as of today but I'm adding more for the week after. It is a high risk speculation but I'm betting for a quick double if lucky while being prepared to lose 100% with such kind of short term options. The beauty is that I don't need to spend a lot of money for the speculation with options. Next week's FOMC meeting may be a catalyst for some firework with high volatility. Let's see how it goes.


Just be clear I'm not really totally bearish outright. I'm actually quite bullish for something: the beaten down quality dividend stocks that will typically outperform in bad times. For example, as I told me friends, I was aggressively buying MO in the past few weeks not only as long term for DRIP but also with options for trading. Luckily in the past month or so, MO  has been outperformed S&P in a wide margin, gaining about 10-15% (vs S&P 3-5%?). With the general crazy bullishness today, I cashed out my short term trading position for MO. It may come down as well with the general market in the next week or two after such a short term good run. So the good profit from this trade alone is more than enough to fund my short positions for the market and long for VIX.