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Saturday, July 30, 2016

Treasury's mini-correction is likely over

Two weeks ago, I predicted the US Treasury bonds would come down to release its overbought froth. Here is what I said: ...the rapid up move of the US bonds in the past 2 weeks was a bit too fast too soon and I think in the very short term it is a bit parabolic and needs to come down first. The ETF for 20+ Treasury bonds (TLT) has jumped to $143 a couple of days ago. I think very likely it will go down to test its 50 DMA around $135 in the next few days......  But please note, this is just for a very short term trade aiming for a quick profit. Longer term, TBT will likely go much down with up moving TLT. Sure enough, TLT did come down and TBT went up as expected. While TLT did not test 135 exactly, it touched 138 and rebounded. I think the mini-correction for TLT may be likely over per its price actions. I bet for this correction with both naked puts and bullish calls for TBT, a double winning for this move. I have closed my TBT positions now. If you bet for the same thing, it is time to take your profits. Here is what I think TLT will move going forward. It may come down a bit again to test its recent low around 138 to create a positive divergence with MACD. If so, it is a very bullish move and will go up again on a sustained fashion. For this direction, I may bet with UBT to ride its next leg up. Happy trading!

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