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Saturday, January 9, 2016

An extremely expensive stock with rather bearish technical outlook

I was thinking to write about this stock a few weeks ago when Alexion (ALXN) was trading around $185ish. This is the stock I wrote about 2 years ago (see here) and it was also quite technically bearish. But it didn't go the way as I had expected; rather it went much higher without a big correction. Then I saw its technical setup again this time and could not help but want to try again for a bearish call on ALXN. You see, ALXN is fundamentally very expensive with a PE of 155. It is showing bearish head & shoulders and has broken down its 3 years trend line and then was bouncing up to challenge its resistance (the trend line). I think this time it could not violate the gravity and will go down much further, mostly likely down towards the support around $150 and if it cannot hold, potentially down to $120.





For some reason, I forgot to write it although I did short it myself. I was again a bit earlier as ALXN went up a bit in the past couple of weeks. However, now it seems to really start to move down as what its technicality is suggesting. In the past few days, it has dropped about $15. Since I used a near term put to trade, I didn't benefit much from this drop due to its initial bouncing up. So I closed my trade with a small gain. At the moment, ALXN is a bit oversold short-term and likely it may go up again to test its resistance around $180, which happens to be its 50 DMA and also the short-term trend line. If that happens, it would be a great opportunity again to short it, aiming for a much big correction. Don't get me wrong. Alexion is still a very successful biotech company, actually one of the most successful. But I just feel too much euphoria has been built into its price for so long, ultimately the Street will get back to the reality based on the fundamentals. I think its price action is signaling that the time is coming.


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