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Saturday, January 30, 2016

A huge catalyst for the US housing that no one is talking about



Early this year, a bill was approved by the Congress and signed off by Obama, which was heralded as a bipartisan agreement that avoided another shutdown of the US government. As usual, it is not a simple legislation to provide more funding to the US government but a bill with over 2200 pages. You can bet buried in the bill there will certainly have something wanted by both parties that would not be easily agreed upon otherwise. There is one provision that will likely provide a huge boost to the US real estate sector.

 

For those who know some history, there was a time over 30 years ago that Japan was an economic superpower. They were so rich that they came to the US to aggressively buy a lot of US real estate assets. Triggered by this fear that Japanese could come to acquire their trophy assets like Rockefeller Center and Pebble Beach etc, the Congress passed the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) in 1980 that required the foreign pension funds to pay much higher tax for investing in the US real estate. This had effectively deterred trillions of dollars in foreign pension funds from investing in the US real estate. Now this old tax has been lifted in this new bill, which may likely trigger a massive influx of foreign capital into the US real estate market in years to come. In addition, foreign pension funds were limited to owning a maximum of 5% of a publically traded US REIT (a trust fund for real estate investment) in the old bill, which has been increased to 10% without it triggering a FIRPTA tax.

 

This is huge folks! Think about it. Currently there is approximately $500b invested in US real estate but foreign pension funds are accounting for only less than 2% of that figure. However, there are trillions of dollars available in foreign pension funds. Just a slight increase of  this portion into the US housing market will easily mean tens of billions of new funds to the sector. This will be a huge boost for the ongoing but very anemic recovery of the US housing market. That’s why,  Jim Fetgatter, the chief executive of the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate, commented that  “this change is a huge deal and will increase the amount of foreign investment in US property, no question.”

 

So how we as individuals can benefit from this positive move in the US real estate. Well, if you are thinking to buy a property for own living or as investment, now is certainly a good time. Alternatively, you may put more money into the housing related stocks or funds. One area I’m particularly interested in is the REITs for healthcare properties, especially those involving senior cares. Omega Healthcare Trust Fund (OHI) is one of them. As you can easily understand, the demographic trend is a great friend for this investment as more and more US population moving into the elderly age band on a daily basis. This will tremendously increase the demand for healthcare in general and senior care in particular, including hospital facilities, senior communities, and senior care centers. OHI is specialized in this area. The market turmoil at the moment has caused blinded selloff in almost every sector and OHI is not immune to it. It has been hair-cut by over 20% from its high but I think this is overdone. Good news is that with this haircut, OHI will pay investors much more with a current yield close to 7%. The market will certainly continue to fluctuate and no one knows when this turmoil will end. But OHI high yield will ease some pain if it continues to slide down. I’m sure over time this will be a great investment for retirement, especially via dividend reinvestment that will welcome any weakness of its share prices as long as its underlying business is intact and producing sufficient cash flow for dividends. I don’t see anything significant that will negatively impact its business and the new positive change in the real estate tax law on foreign pension funds will only help! I’m adding more shares of OHI and will continue to do so, taking advantage of any weakness of OHI prices.

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