Alexion looks ominous from its chart

I'm a bit reluctant to write this blog as I have many friends working for Alexion. I'm sure no one whats to hear bad "words" for what they have deep stakes in. I'm also taking a huge risk by being against almost all the analysts who are extremely bullish about Alexion (ALXN). Among 23 analysts, 10 have a rating of strong buy, 7 buy and 6 hold. None for underperform or sell. The mean target price by the analysts is $114.80 with a median of $119. After all, who am I with no financial background but dare to challenge those guys specialized in analyzing stocks? So simply keep this in mind that this is only my personal non-professional view and very likely I could be wrong. Just a different opinion on the stock. In case it happens to follow what I'm predicting, there will be no surprise that no one was talking about it.

With this cautionary preamble, here is what I'm thinking. I'm not talking about fundamentals at all. Fundamentally, ALXN is extremely expensive with a P/E at 70. But over years I have learnt that stocks can stay at inflated levels longer than anyone can imagine. Agree or not, ALXN has been in an uptrend at such expensive valuations for a few years now. It can certainly continue. However, what really looks ugly for me is its price curve as shown below. Technically, the chart shows a text-book head and shoulders pattern, which is very bearish. The head is of course in the middle with the price around $120. The shoulders on both sides are around $95. If ALXN really follows the typical course of the H&S pattern, here is my prediction in the next few weeks to months for ALXN: it may go up a bit to around $95 or even up to below $100 and then starts to resume its downward trend. When this next leg down starts, it can easily drop down toward $70 or so, the next strong support level.