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Sunday, March 24, 2013

Apple has likely reached its bottom

I was way too early initially to have bought Apple at around $500, kind of catching the falling knife.  Early this year, it seemed to me that Apple could further decline to low $400s but I thought it would be bottomed there. Well I think we have got that. Apple reached to the level as low as $420 a week ago and since then it has posted both higher highs and higher lows, a bullish price movement. More importantly, it has broken its half a year downward trend line. This is often an indicator of a turning point for a trend. I think $420 is likely the bottom for Apple and it may have turned the wave in its favor. Of course, from its fundamentals, Apple is cheap on almost any sort of valuation basis. Its P/E is just 10 times earnings or even just 7 times forward earnings. It has $140B in cash ($42 per share) with no debt. It is expected to have double digit revenue growth with a PEG of 0.55 (under 1 is considered a buy). It currently pays a 2.3% dividend. The real kick now is a high expectation that Apple will finally increase its dividend significantly or pay a special dividend which is likely big due to its huge cash load.

If you are thinking to invest with Apple, this may be a good time for a long-term play.



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