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Saturday, August 29, 2015

You will regret if you don't buy some Chevron now

About 3-4 months ago, I made 2 bold predictions: the stock market was heading for a severe correction in the magnitude of 10-15% and the 10 year treasury rate could come down to 2%. Well, it took some time to materialize but both did occur as expected. But to be honest, the speedy crash within 2 days time was somewhat unexpected as I thought it would take quite some time with back and forth volatile fluctuations to finish the whole correction. But the market has its own mind and it wanted to complete it fast and decisively. So will the market simply recover from here and shoot up immediately? It is possible but I think the significant technical damage has been done and it will more likely take time to repair. In other words, the violent rebound in the past 2 sessions could be short lived and we may see S&P go down again toward low 1900s soon.  If it can hold above 1900, it is bullish and could mean it wants to move higher soon.

With this kind of panic selling, many great stocks lost quite a bit of their values, but I think CVX is especially at a great value. People are worried about its ability to pay dividends but it has a 27 years of track record of paying increasing dividends. You can bet during this 27 years period it has experienced many challenging times like today, including the financial crisis in 2008-2009 but nothing has materially damaged its business in a sustainable fashion. It will survive and come back again. Its CFO recently has specifically addressed the concern of its dividends and clearly indicated that they are doing anything they can to keep the track record intact. Another good sign is that many insiders are buying at the prices of $100, $90s, to $80s. Historically, CVX dividend yields have ranged between 2.5% to 4.5%. You rarely found the time when its yield jumped to 5-6%, suggesting its share price was quite depressed. Now is the time that CVX dividend yield is around 6%. I don't think it will stay there for long. Yes, the crude oil may still go down further and CVX could still fluctuate in price. But to me, it will be insane to not buy some CVX shares at this low price for long-term investment, especially if you keep dividends reinvested. For long-term investment with great stocks undervalued, its price fluctuations really do not mean too much. Buy some CVX now!

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