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Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Don't call a bottom of oil too soon

The recent oil move must have caught a lot of eyes and the obvious question is if oil has reached the bottom and is ready to move up now. The short answer for me is NO. The market is a weird animal and it won't let you feel good easily. When everyone is looking for a bottom, the bottom is likely not in yet. That is how the market works. The past few days strong bouncing up in oil has got many people euphoric, claiming the bottom is in. My bet is: not so soon. This is still within the normal range of an oversold bounce. I'm pretty sure it will come down again. Just as a patient with sepsis, you should not expect him to recover quickly within days. It has to take some days up and down before truly recovering. Same for oil. The damage already done is too severe too deep. It needs time to recover. Right now it may be in the stage calling sandpapering. I don't expect it will simply explode high from here. If you try to jump in for a quick profit, look out below! For those who expected to see this oversold bounce and went in with some speculative trading, it is the time to get out to lock in the profit. Otherwise, you may see your gain evaporate quickly. I did have closed my trading positions with some quick profits.

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