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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Trading opportunity for Apple?

Apple is being killed today. Due to its poorest earning since 2008, those once Apple lovers simply gave up and dumped Apple share en masse. What a brutal day for Apple. Technically speaking Apple has a good chance to further slide down to probably low $400 in the next few weeks or months. But if you are a risk taker and nimble trader, maybe you can make some quick money. Why? Today's sharp decline has forced the stock to go way out of its Bollinger Bands (the channel between the grayish lines). You may notice that it has rarely gone out of the BB boundary either side. When it does, usually it is stretched too much to one side and it has the tendency to go back, so-called return to mean. RSI as shown at the bottom panel is another technical indicator whether a stock is oversold (below 20) or overbought (above 80). Right now, Apple's RSI is right at 20, meaning it is oversold at the moment. It has touched or been below 20 a few times in the past year and almost each time it was followed by a rebound. I bet there will be a rebound in the next few days. But remember, if you trade with this idea, you must be a quick profit taker as Apple may resume its downtrend soon. But ultimately I think Apple will be a good buy at around $400 if it indeed reaches that level. When there is extreme pessimism, a good opportunity is always around the corner.

 
Chart forApple Inc. (AAPL)


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