Gold has spent the past 18 months for consolidation since it reached its peak at $1900 in Aug 2011. While it must be very frustrating for many people to see gold has gone nowhere for months and months, I must say I'm very impressed by how gold has been doing in consolidating. I was expecting much worse that I thought gold could go below $1500, although I was mentally prepared to back up my truck to buy buy buy if gold did drop to such low levels. But it didn't. Right now, it has come more and more to a narrow trading range, which technically speaking is leading towards the point of a massive move, up or down. My gut feeling is that it is ready soon for an explosive upward move to challenge its old peak. Using GLD as an proxy, the current gold price movement is eerily similar to what it did back in 2008: after temporarily peaking at $1000, it spent also around 18 months or so sliding down to as low as below $700 and then all the sudden forcefully started to climb back. As I said before, it is actually healthy for any bull to take a rest before marching forward again with lasing strength. I think gold is just doing that this time as well. I cannot tell when but I think the time is close for its next move when it has accumulated enough energy. I have a hunch that gold will start to jump up quickly in the second half of this year. There is one clear technical indicator to tell when this is really occurring: $1790! Why this figure? Because in the past one and a half year, gold has challenged this level 3 times without success. When this level is broken out, then gold is really ready to jump high, much much higher than its last top of $1900. I won't be surprised to see gold to reach $2500 as its next temporary resting area. Fasten your seat belt if you are already on board with gold.
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