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Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Gold: Short-term correction looming

I'm a big bull for gold. I started my first investment in gold back in 2004. In the past 6 years or so, I have put money into various gold products including gold mining stocks, paper gold, gold bullion, gold coins.... you name it. So what happens to me, such a gold bug, to call a gold correction, in the middle of a huge gold rally, almost on a daily basis? No, I'm not bearish on gold at all. On the contrary, I'm even more bullish on the gold long-term trend. However, whenever it is too crowded in an investment idea, I become nervous. Nowadays, you will hear all the talking heads to recommend gold investment on CNBC; you will see all kinds of ads on TV to promote sales of gold. More worrisome for me is to see the record-breaking price of gold everyday in the past 2 weeks. While it is great for my gold positions with record gold price, it is not healthy to see any investment to appreciate too fast within a short period of time. It is just not sustainable! My gut feeling tells me a short-term correction in gold, which may even be severe, is coming. So what will I do with this prediction?

Over these years, gold has corrected many times on its way up. It has never been a straight upward line. Even in the last huge gold bull in late 70s and early 80s, gold price corrected almost 50% before moonshotting from $200 to $800. In the last several corrections, I sold some of my positions hoping to get a better chance to go back. But honestly most often than not, gold quickly reversed its course and rallied even higher. Given such lessons, I won't sell my gold positions this time regardless. No way! On the other hands, I do want to protect my paper profits. There is an easy way to do that actually. An ETN, symbol DZZ, will do the work. DZZ seeks to replicate twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. So it is a leverage tool, which will increase roughly twice against the reduction of gold price (but not exactly against the gold price). I use DZZ as an insurance to offset some of loss from my gold positions if a severe correction indeed comes. Even if you don't have any gold positions at the moment but if you are itching for making some quick money from a gold correction, you may simply buy DZZ. Of course, there is no guarantee for this bet and gold may simply go straight up, although highly unlikely to me. Make your own decision.

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