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Wednesday, August 4, 2021

How much value of your money can you keep up with?

This is the dollar value in the past 74 years, declining 92% in the span. Or roughly it is 1.2% every year. 


When a central bank like the Federal Reserve is printing trillions of dollars of stimulus, and interest rates are being kept artificially low resulting in 10-year treasury yields materially lower than U.S. GDP growth, this is exactly what happens.

Do you think the trend will slow down or even turn around? Not a chance. If anything, the trend will only accelerate!! So if you heavily rely on cash-like saving to support your life, be aware of this toxic trend.

Solution? In addition to investing for the long term, especially dividend reinvestment, buying some commodities, gold/silver and bitcoin/cryptos will not be a bad idea😏

Monday, August 2, 2021

If you are still interested in it....

You probably have heard about the epic collapse of a once darling startup company, WeWork. However, it is in the process of going IPO via SPAC. If you are interested in putting some money into it, see below first and then decide if this speculation is still something you want to pursue. 

Here's a summary that appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The We That Didn't Work at WeWork:

WeWork underwent one of the most spectacular corporate meltdowns of the decade. It aborted an initial public offering, Mr. Neumann was ousted as chief executive, the company's valuation tumbled by nearly $40 billion and Mr. Son – having never completed the $20 billion deal – saw his tech-oracle image become fodder for jokes...

The high-profile immolation of the country's most valuable startup was caused by an array of factors including loose corporate governance, loose money and a financial sector thirsty for founders promising vision and innovation.

But playing a starring role in WeWork's rise and fall was the relationship between the two entrepreneurs, Mr. Son and Mr. Neumann. The pair often relied on erratic decision making as they made highly consequential decisions with billions of dollars – decisions that ultimately paved the way for WeWork's implosion.

It was a mix of mentor and disciple, competitive rivalry, and some father-and-son dynamics – resulting in a battle of one upmanship that left both men humiliated and furious with each other, said former and current employees of WeWork and SoftBank.

Today, the company is still grappling with the hangover. Now worth $8 billion, down from $47 billion, WeWork is on track to go public, this time through a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company. It exited some leases taken on by Mr. Neumann with SoftBank's money but must still absorb an enormous amount of office space. Occupancy is at a once unthinkable 53%.

Friday, July 30, 2021

A precision of TA prediction

It is truly a rollercoaster week for the market: it plunged in the early week, followed by new highs in the middle and closed by another selloff. If you were sleeping the whole week after just buying on Monday and holding it for the week, you wouldn't see much changes when you woke up today. This is a rather crazy time period for the stock market as you can hardly hold stocks for a few days without seeing them going crazily up and down! For traders, the best thing to do is to go swinging. That's what I'm doing right now. Actually I have been long and short several times this week and my crystal ball (the VIX option trends) has served me quite well so far! No complaining!😎



Shortly following my blog, AMZN started to rebound again, making new highs around 3750ish. I thought I was totally wrong about my analysis on its TA. Well, AMZN "suddenly" crashed by 7% today following its disappointing earnings report. This is a rather extreme plunge for Amazon and the 270 points haircut has brought it all the way down to below $3330. Ouch! This is again another beautiful case verification about the value of TA. Somehow the charting has already dictated its near term fate. Mission accomplished!! πŸ€—✌

Thursday, July 29, 2021

Fauci Is Finished


By Trish Regan

After misleading the public for 17 months, Dr. Anthony Fauci may finally have to face the music...

This week, Senator Rand Paul criminally referred Fauci to the Department of Justice. At issue is whether "America's doctor" lied under oath to Congress.

Over the last year, Fauci repeatedly told Congress that the National Institutes of Health ("NIH") did not fund gain-of-function research into bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Yet, as recently as last weekend, Fauci was on CNN saying that it would have been negligent not to fund this research.

Which leaves us asking... Which was it, Fauci? Did we fund the Wuhan lab as records suggest or did we not?

Fauci previously told Senator Paul in a hearing that the NIH "has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the U.S. Institute of Virology."

Last week, Senator Paul asked Fauci if he'd like to retract his earlier statement, adding: "As you are aware, it is a crime to lie to Congress."

Fauci refused, however, to retract the statement... saying he had never lied to Congress while adding, "You don't know what you're talking about, quite frankly. And I would like to say that officially."

Fauci's Flip-Flop

So why did he tell CNN it would have been negligent to not fund the research, while saying something different to Congress? I suspect this is Fauci proving his stripes as a political bureaucrat...

What is clear is that Anthony Fauci certainly knew more than he was ever willing to admit... And as a result, Americans have been left in the dark for well over a year as to the origins of COVID-19.

Why did Fauci insist the virus came from a wet market?

E-mails from Fauci's account as far back as February 2020 suggest he at least knew it was conceivable that the coronavirus had been leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Yet he quite literally refused to tell the public that.

When then-President Donald Trump admitted to reporters in April 2020 that he had seen intelligence suggesting the virus came from the Wuhan lab, Trump was immediately reprehended for the comments that the mainstream media labeled as conspiratorial.

Fauci himself refuted the remarks by Trump in an interview with National Geographic magazine, saying all the scientific evidence pointed to the wet-market theory.

And yet, he knew better... He just didn't want the U.S. to know better.

Then, when President Biden took office, one of the first things he did was shut down the investigation into the Wuhan lab.

Why? Why wouldn't his team want to get to the bottom of what may have happened?

Allegedly, there were some folks in the State Department who didn't want it being known that the U.S. had helped fund the lab.

This is what you'd call a big, hot mess...

This May, the Wall Street Journal reported on some previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence that suggested yes, the virus could have come out of Wuhan and the Institute of Virology. According to the intelligence documents, three employees at the Wuhan Institute of Virology felt so ill with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 that they were hospitalized in November 2019.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization ("WHO") has taken China's side in this and said there was no reason to further investigate the Wuhan lab (where they were studying bat coronaviruses), and until the WSJ report was issued, the Biden administration was quite willing to give China a pass.

Again, I'm left scratching my head... Why was Fauci, Biden, the State Department, the WHO, and everyone in the mainstream media carrying China's water? Even now, a bill in Congress that would have required all intelligence surrounding the origins of COVID be declassified was shot down last week by Democrats.

What gives?

Fauci's Affinity for Gain-of-Function Research

I've reported this before in American Consequences, and it's worth highlighting again: In 2012, Fauci wrote a paper in which he argued that conducting experiments on contagious viruses was worth it even if the work and experiments accidentally led to a pandemic.

Writing about gain-of-function experiments in the American Society for Microbiology magazine, Fauci said these experiments could manipulate viruses and make them much stronger... and that the research was necessary, even if it resulted in a worldwide pandemic:

Scientists working in this field might say, as indeed I have said, that the benefits of such experiments and the resulting knowledge outweigh the risks. The need to stay ahead of such a threat is a primary reason for performing an experiment that might appear to be risky.

"Risky." You can say that again... Millions are now dead from a virus that may have been created in a Chinese lab that we helped fund.

Is this why no one wants answers?

Perhaps... which is why it's up to us to keep demanding the truth. Senator Rand Paul is right to insist on it... and as Americans, we must keep searching for answers.

The Fauci Scapegoat

The mainstream media and the Left turned the good doctor into a poster boy of righteousness overnight. No matter how many times he contradicted himself, somehow his theories and advice were automatically taken as correct.

They hated President Trump so much that they were willing to look the other way on the obvious stuff... like the fact that a Chinese bio lab was in the same place that an infectious virus was first identified.

But Trump is no longer part of the picture... So with that in mind, I question whether the Left and the media will still rally to Fauci's defense. Indeed, it's quite possible that they may make Fauci a kind of scapegoat at this point... And he just might find himself in the crosshairs of an angry nation. Not that I have much sympathy...

Because if it's proven that Fauci was helping to fund the research that killed millions – and lied about it under oath to Congress – then he deserves to be called out for those mistakes.

Regardless of what happens, I'm still left asking:

1. Why didn't we know that the NIH was helping to fund this research in, of all places, China?

2. Why weren't we told earlier that there was a possibility the virus came from the lab?

The American public deserves to know what's going on... Without transparency trust in our system increasingly erodes. If people believe they are being lied to (and it sure seems we were), then increasingly Americans will fail to trust in our system.

And right now, the government needs its citizens to trust the system if it hopes to improve its vaccination levels.

Trish's Takeaway

Unfortunately, investors need to be prepared for "shutdown 2.0."

Travel restrictions are popping up again across the globe, and mask mandates are making a reappearance in many places after the WHO recently said vaccinated people should wear masks indoors again. (Our own Buck Sexton covered the latest "mask madness" yesterday)

As P.J. O'Rourke and I discuss in this week's podcast, politicians seem to enjoy the power trip of shutdowns... And the most dangerous thing for our economy right now would be a repeat of the 2020 lockdowns.

I remain skeptical as to whether shutdowns would translate into a sustained market sell-off... Although, I would expect some additional stock market volatility and even some down days.

But as always, the Fed stands in the wings – ready, willing, and able to print more money in an attempt to cushion the fall.

Meanwhile, the administration would likely seize the opportunity of another shutdown to send more stimulus checks and extend unemployment benefits. And so the cycle continues...

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Why the next real correction is likely more severe

As I wrote last Friday, VIX traders were betting for high volatility by Wed (today) this week, as shown in the extremely high VIX call/put ratio. Well, they are right again and I'm happy to have this crystal ball that is more often than not correctly guiding me for the short term direction. Yesterday VIX jumped 15% at the intraday peak.  

So far in the past year or so, the dip to the 50-day moving average (MA) line didn't always mark the absolute low of the move. But, in every case over the past year, buying at the 50-day MA proved profitable within a few weeks. But, there's something interesting happening now... pullbacks are being bought up much faster. It is very technical to explain this but in general, corrections in the stock market tend to unfold in three legs. There's the first move lower… Then there's the bounce... And then typically we get another decline to a lower low. If the lower low is associated with positive momentum, then the lower low provides the best buying opportunity. See the yellow highlighted arrows on the chart below show how that plays out.



But something changed starting in May. We got the dip, and we got the bounce. But the next decline formed a higher low. In other words, buyers were more eager than usual to step up. You can see the 3 blue arrows on the right side. Of course, nothing is wrong as long as traders can make money regardless of technicality and this trend may just continue for a while. But sooner or later, this Buy-The-First-Dip (BTFD) strategy will stop working as it is not a normal phenorman of trading. Instead, this is usually occurring near the end of a bullish trend. Here is the big warning, when the BTFD strategy stops working, it tends to lead to a more severe correction that will last for a while.  I of course don't know when this will happen but I suspect this will be coming pretty soon, given various TA warning signs are flashing more and more lately. 

Consider you are warned!!

 

Monday, July 26, 2021

The big whale wants more.....

I just heard a story about how the big whale is holding up their Bitcoin. While bitcoin trading is associated with extreme privacy and no one can easily get the buyer's real information, each trade of bitcoin is openly visible by everyone as all transactions are public information on the chain. With that, we can easily see any big money's moves into or out of bitcoin. Here is the interesting story for one big money account. Back in 2018, one bitcoin account bought 8000 bitcoins worth about $28 millions at that time. Since then, this account has not done anything with the bitcoin holding. At the recent peak of over $60K for bitcoin, the account was worth over $500 million, nearly 20 times the initial investment.  But nothing has happened still as the account still holds 8000 bitcoins. In the past few weeks, bitcoin is experiencing a severe correction, cutting by half in its price. The Whale still did not do anything when bitcoin dropped below $30K recently. However, something interesting has just occurred in the past few days: it was found that this account suddenly has increased over a billion of dollars worth of bitcoin! What does all this mean? Well, this big Whale has no fear whatsoever about the recent bitcoin "crash". Instead it apparently believes right now is a good time to buy more aggressively into bitcoin again. 

This is of course a very bullish case I'd like to share, although by no means I suggest bitcoin has necessarily hit its absolute bottom for this correction. I'm confident it is at its bottom area but I certainly don't know if the lowest point has already been passed for bitcoin. 

Let me share another extremely bullish trend for bitcoin: State-sponsored pensions funds are beginning to get exposure to cryptos. For example, New Jersey's state-managed pension fund is buying digital mining stocks! New Jersey's pension fund supports about 800,000 different government employees' retirement plans. Its Common Pension Fund D has $30 billion in total assets for state employees. According to the fund's SEC Form 13F filing, the fund has nearly a quarter of the fund (over $7 million) invested in crypto stocks. More specifically, at the end of June, the fund had $3.66 million in Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and $3.39 million in Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA).

Of course, New Jersey isn't the only state that's adding crypto stocks to their pension fund. California's pension fund has also been investing heavily in RIOT. 

We all know, nearly all the pension funds are deeply in trouble in terms of lack of sufficient money for ongoing and future obligations. I have long believed that it would be a smart move for any pension funds to invest just a small proportion of their fund in crypto assets, which may totally change their financial status in the long run. Well it appears I'm not the only one thinking about that way. Even the very conservative State-pension funds are starting to do so, which is indeed a very smart vision. I don't know what those "smart" financial experts/gurus out there, who have constantly call the death of Bitcoin, would think about this megatrend!πŸ˜‡ 

Saturday, July 24, 2021

A stupid and smart move

If you pay any attention to the crypto world, you know what China is doing: ban all cryptos and drive away all the crypto mining companies. To me, this is a rather stupid move as far as I can see as they are killing a booming industry that can hugely benefit the country in the long run. Well, this stupidity is a gain for others! Russia is much smarter in this sense and they are serious about attracting China's crypto mining companies. They're working with government authorities, as well as state-owned enterprises, to determine how to get these Chinese firms into Russia. Here's the headline of their global announcement:


Taken from Racib.com


In this announcement, they list six specific reasons why mining companies should move to Russia.
  1. A high degree of centralization of the Russian energy system - about 90% of the total electricity is generated by large power plants;
  2. A large excess of electricity in the Russian Federation; depending on the specific region and the generating facility (even taking into account the high degree of wear and tear of the power plant equipment and power redundancy), it may amount to more than 50% of its installed electric capacity;
  3. Cold climate, which provides the possibility of organizing equipment cooling without the use of special refrigeration units (free cooling) and high energy efficiency of data centers;
  4. Excess of traditional fuel and energy resources;
  5. The specifics of socio-economic factors - a high level of professionalism of specialists;
  6. Large territories with a low density of settlements - the possibility of deploying large energy and infrastructure facilities.

In a few years time, we will see what impact today's move of both countries will have for their economy. Whether you like it or not, crypto is the future for the world, which will only become more important for our daily life. Therefore, any attempt to nullify it is not only an empty effort, it will also make competitors stronger!!