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Friday, April 12, 2024

The battlefield has been redefined


This is what I said yesterday:

 

Yesterday, the bulls had done an amazing job to push SPX above the 20 DMA, which seemed to shift back the bullish trend. But today's fear of the Middle East conflict escalation has plunged the market with panic selloffs. Well, actually SPX crashed all the way down to the 50 DMA around 5110ish but bounced back a bit by closing. So we are still in the new battlefield now. Barring a shooting war exploded in the Middle East over the weekend, I think the market will likely rally early next week. But the risk of the ME is real and serious. If we do unfortunately see a direct war between Israel and Iran, the market will tank and gold and oil will shoot up to the moon. 

To prepare for the worst, here is what we are doing with a 1:11 risk reward trade. I hope we won't see a war coming but wishful thinking is never a good strategy in investing and trading.

 

In addition, we are also buying oil with a 1:4 risk/reward trade, as oil could easily go up above $100 if the worst comes.

Let's hope for the best but prepare for the worst!

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