Many people, like Jim Cramer, assume that as soon as the Fed "pivots," such will be bullish for equities. While no one knows when the Fed will pivot (aka reducing the rate), it will do so at some point. The million dollar question is whether the Fed pivot will immediately trigger a market bull run? I hope so but history has shown an opposite picture.
Historically, when the Fed cuts interest rates, such is not the end of equity "bear markets," but rather the beginning. Such is shown in the chart below of previous "Fed pivots."
Notably, most "bear markets" occur AFTER the Fed's "policy pivot."
The Fed was extremely clear they are going to hike rates until "inflation" is on a trajectory towards its 2% target. The Fed is currently using very blunt instruments to achieve that goal, which will most likely result in a recession. As I have said repeatedly, a recession is nearly a certainty. And in this scenario, the market still has a long way to go to search for the bottom!!
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