Why a recession is nearly a certainty

There is another powerful indicator that is flashing vigorously for an upcoming downturn of the market.  It is the movement of the U.S. Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This index includes employment figures, manufacturing order, interest rate spreads, and consumer expectations.

Here is an analysis that I have just seen: 

As you can see in the chart below, the index is now in negative territory on a year-over-year basis.

Over the last 40 years, each drop into negative territory signaled the start of a recession.

The market seems to be ignoring these loud indicators. In fact, per Bloomberg, the probability of a U.S. recession within one year is only 9%. This is likely heavily underestimated.

Once the market awakens to what appears to be an imminent recession, more pain will come.