Today's is the last trading day for Jul and the market has mounted a great rally towards this month's end. Has the market been out of the woods and is ready to move up from here or will it resume its downtrend continuing the current bear market? No one knows for sure of course but we probably will know soon.
Actually right now we are at a critical inflection point that may determine which direction the market will go from here. You see, The S&P is sitting right on the 4100ish level. That is the spot of the 20-month exponential moving average line on the monthly chart. It is a critical level – especially since today is the final day of the month. If S&P decisively breaks up through this level, it may mean the market is back on its bull run and will start to move up to its new highs in the months ahead. However, if it cannot and its kiss from below is being refused and kicked back, then the next big move will likely be to the downside.
And, it could be much, much, lower in the months to come.
You see, if the market starts to sell off again in August, which is typically a seasonally weak month, then the pattern will look more like 2001 and 2008 – and we all know what happened back then.
Keep your fingers crossed for whichever direction you are looking for. And we will know pretty soon. For my money, I'm not yet convinced the overall direction has already changed for the market and we may still see a little while for the bear to move around. Make up your own mind!
No comments:
Post a Comment