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Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Time tested rules of investing and trading

Although we are likely still in the market Melt-Up phase for the near future, we are approaching fast the next bear market cycle that will be doomed to come after the Melp-Up bubble is burst. It is just when, not if, the time will come. With this in mind, the following investing/trading rules that have been tested times and again are worth noting. 


Doug Kass' 50-Laws Of Investing

The Rules 1-10

  • Common sense is not so common.
  • Greed often overcomes common sense.
  • Greed kills.
  • Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
  • There is no vaccine for being overleveraged.
  • When you combine ignorance and leverage – you usually get some pretty scary results.
  • Operate only in your area of competence.
  • There is always more than one cockroach.
  • Stocks have a gravitational pull higher – over long periods of time equities will rise in value.
  • Long investing generates wealth.

The Rules 11-20

  • Short selling protects wealth.
  • Be patient and learn how to sit on your hands.
  • Try to get a little smarter every day and read as much as humanly possible – an investment in knowledge pays the best dividends.
  • Investors sometimes think too little and calculate too much.
  •  Read and reread Security Analysis (1934) by Graham and Dodd – it is the most important book on investing ever published.
  • History is a great teacher.
  • History rhymes.
  • What we have learned from history is that we haven't learned from history.
  • Investment wisdom is always 20/20 when viewed in the rearview mirror.
  • Avoid "first-level thinking" and embrace "second-level thinking."

The Rules 21-30

  • Think for yourself – those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.
  • In investing, that what is comfortable – especially at the beginning – is most often not exceedingly profitable at the end.
  • Avoid the odor of "group stink" – mimicking the herd and the crowd's folly invite mediocrity.
  • The more often a stupidity is repeated, the more it gets the appearance of wisdom.
  • Always have more questions than answers.
  • To be a successful investor you must have accounting/finance knowledge, you must work hard and you have to be keenly competitive.
  • The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything but the value of nothing.
  • Directional call buying, when consumed as a steady appetite, is a "mug's game" and is often a path to the poorhouse.
  • Never buy the stock of a company whose CEO wears more jewelry than your mother, wife, girlfriend or sister.
  • Avoid "the noise."

Rules 31-40

  • Directional call buying, when consumed as a steady appetite, is a "mug's game" and is often a path to the poorhouse.
  • Never buy the stock of a company whose CEO wears more jewelry than your mother, wife, girlfriend or sister.
  • Avoid "the noise."
  • Reversion to the mean is a strong market influence.
  • On markets and individual equities… when you reach "station success," get off!
  • Low stock prices are the ally of the rational buyer – high stock prices are the enemy of the rational buyer.
  • Being right or wrong is not as important as how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.
  • Too much of a good thing can be wonderful – look for compelling ideas and when you have conviction go ahead and overweight "bigly."
  • New paradigms are a rare occurrence.
  • Pride goes before fall.

Rules 41-50

  • Consider opposing investment views and cultivate curiosity.
  • Maintain a healthy level of skepticism as you never know when the Cossacks might be approaching.
  • Though doubt is uncomfortable, certainty is ridiculous and sometimes dangerous.
  • When investing and trading, never let your mind dwell on personal problems and always control your emotions.
  • 'Rate of change' is the most important statistic in investing.
  • In evaluating the attractiveness of a company always consider upside reward vs. downside risk and 'margin of safety.'
  • Don't stray from your investing and trading methodologies and timeframes.
  • "Know" what you own.
  • Immediately sell a stock on the announcement or discovery of an accounting irregularity.
  • Always follow the cash (flow).
  • When new ways of earnings are developed – like EBITDA (and before stock-based compensation) – substitute them with the word… "bullshit."

2-Bonus Rules

  • Favor pouring over balance sheets and income statements than spending time on Twitter and r/wallstreetbets.
  • Always pay attention to what David Tepper and Stanley Druckenmiller are thinking/doing. (Trade/invest against them, at your own risk). 

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