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Friday, September 22, 2017

Where are the bears?



It is Sep/Oct, a notoriously bearish time period of a year for the stock market but so far, we have only seen a 1% decline that has quickly recovered. And now we are seeing new highs one after another. It is really difficult to look for a bearish prospect. Even a unexpectedly hawkish FED decision to start earlier unwinding QE could barely move the market down. People are just feeling good now. The AAII survey indicates that bulls are more than double the bears. The VIX is moving back down below 10 again. I start to see a widespread complacence again. This is exactly the time when the bear will strike without notice, folks. Looking for a sudden jump of VIX that may come any day for now. After all, it is Sep and Oct. The market tends to keep its rhythm, although it has a habit to camouflage itself to hoax traders into an opposite direction. Be cautious, friends!

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