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Saturday, July 8, 2017

The next big blockbusters


For drug companies, blockbusters are defined as those drugs with annual sales over $1 Billion. The goal for each biotech or pharma companies is to have as many blockbusters as possible with obvious reasons. This is especially true for small biotech companies, for which one or two expected blockbusters may make its stock to move 50%, 100% or more overnight. Below is the list I have seen now for the next potential blockbusters from different companies with promising drugs in late stage Phase 3 studies. AbbVie (ABBV) stands out as the top with 4 potential BBs in its pipeline. But keep in mind, BBs are significant for any companies but for big pharma, they do not necessarily mean an immediate significant up-move due to their baseline size. For example, for AbbVie, while 4 BBs are significant for any companies, their combined annual sales as expected “only” add up to about $5-6 B but its current major revenue is heavily relying on one biggest BB ever in the global pharma history, a whopping $16 B drug called Humira but it is close to its patent expiry in the next couple of years. Even all four potential BBs are successful, it is still questionable whether they can effectively compensate for the loss from the competition from the copycats after Humira’s patent protection is gone. So use this list as a start point for doing some of your own research for the companies interesting to you!

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