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Wednesday, July 12, 2017

A euphoric move for NVDA

I like the hype today for NVDA. As I said to friends a couple of days ago, I'm waiting for a good entry point for my short arm of the bearish combo position to short it. Technically it can still go up to $168, the all time high, but still be bearish with a double top. This is the most critical point I'm closely watching to determine if its correction is over. I don't believe it can break up now but more likely another leg down will soon follow. The current move of NVDA is quite similar to what it did back in Feb when it formed a double top as well and then a 20% plunge followed. The daily and weekly momentum is very similarly lined up now to suggest a more severe leg down is quite possible.
I already traded with good profits in shorting NVDA when it went above $160 last time. And I'm setting up another round of short position with a step wise approach to ensure a guaranteed profit regardless if I'm right or wrong. I first sold naked puts of NVDA Aug 150 puts a week ago when it was sold off hard for a few days, expecting a "dead cat bounce" would follow. It indeed did not disappoint me as it's mounting a rather strong bounce in the past few days. My naked puts have already gained 50%+ in just a few days. Today's move of NVDA is quite euphoric to me and has made it rather overbought. While I may be too early to short it and it can still go up towards $168 as discussed above, I don't want to take the risk of giving back my gain from the naked puts. So I added/bought my short arm with Aug 160 puts today. By doing so, I have virtually locked my minimal gain regardless how NVDA will do in the next few weeks. If I'm right and NVDA goes down below $150 by Aug 17, I will win big from the short. If I'm wrong and NVDA continues to go up from here, my gain is capped with about a 20% profit. Certainly no complain even if I'm early or wrong!

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