I like the hype today for NVDA. As I said to friends a couple of
days ago, I'm waiting for a good entry point for my short arm of the
bearish combo position to short it. Technically it can still go up to
$168, the all time high, but still be bearish with a double top. This is
the most critical point I'm closely watching to determine if its
correction is over. I don't believe it can break up now but more likely
another leg down will soon follow. The current move of NVDA is quite
similar to what it did back in Feb when it formed a double top as well
and then a 20% plunge followed. The daily and weekly momentum is very
similarly lined up now to suggest a more severe leg down is quite
possible.
I already traded with good profits in
shorting NVDA when it went above $160 last time. And I'm setting up
another round of short position with a step wise approach to ensure a
guaranteed profit regardless if I'm right or wrong. I first sold naked
puts of NVDA Aug 150 puts a week ago when it was sold off hard for a
few days, expecting a "dead cat bounce" would follow. It indeed did not
disappoint me as it's mounting a rather strong bounce in the past few
days. My naked puts have already gained 50%+ in just a few days. Today's
move of NVDA is quite euphoric to me and has made it rather overbought.
While I may be too early to short it and it can still go up towards $168
as discussed above, I don't want to take the risk of giving back my
gain from the naked puts. So I added/bought my short arm with Aug 160 puts
today. By doing so, I have virtually locked my minimal gain regardless
how NVDA will do in the next few weeks. If I'm right and NVDA goes down
below $150 by Aug 17, I will win big from the short. If I'm wrong and
NVDA continues to go up from here, my gain is capped with about a 20%
profit. Certainly no complain even if I'm early or wrong!
No comments:
Post a Comment