Macro: The Bottom Line (6/30/2014)

Party spoilers?

 

For most observers of the financial markets, the past couple of weeks have been rather dull - not the least because much of the globe has their attention fixated on what has been a thrilling World Cup in Brazil. With the likes of Neymar, Messi, Müller, and Robben unleashing the full wrath of their goal-scoring machines, what's there to spoil the mood?

Plenty, it seems, if the U.S. Treasury market is any indicator. In fact, last week saw yet another sharp decline in Treasury yields (the 10Y fell from near 2.65 pct to close to 2.50 pct). The reasons were two-fold:

First, there was the downward revision to 1st quarter U.S. GDP growth. Now, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. economy contracted 2.9% annualized, not 1% as previously estimated. This is the severest quarterly contraction since 1Q 2009, when the country was still licking its wounds from the subprime crisis and Lehman bankruptcy.

Second, geopolitics again reared its ugly head. New Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's "ceasefire" looked like nothing more than a cynical joke, especially after rebels in the country's East once again shot down a government helicopter. And worse, just when the Obama administration thought it had finally extricated itself from the morass in the Middle East, radical militants of the "Islamic State in Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) steamrolled through the Iraqi heartland, coming as close as ever to their goal of an Islamist caliphate.

The headlines are indeed alarming. But are these events truly potent enough to turn the 2014 bull rally on its head? Or are they mere tempests in a teapot, whose ripples were somewhat amplified by the last couple of weeks' relatively thin liquidity? I'd argue for the latter:

On the U.S. GDP front: As banal as this sounds, the number was skewed by a couple of one-off factors. Again, there's no denying that weather played a huge role in the contraction. The rollout of Obamacare also caused some difficulties in quantifying government healthcare expenditures over the quarter.

 

True, the meaningful drop in business fixed investment is cause for concern, and continues to point to an economy that's not yet firing on all cylinders. But the markets are already fully in "2013 detox" mode, to an extent that any bad news on growth only fuels expectations of more central-bank accommodation. So if anything, far from derailing markets, the GDP print will likely further help undo the 2013 consensus, as we've discussed in several posts so far.

 

Now, on the geopolitical front: This is trickier. Crude oil did make a meaningful move above $105 this past week, and the prospect of an Islamist caliphate controlling swathes of oil reserves is indeed concerning. But the true likelihood of a black swan event - a broader conflict in Ukraine or a disruption in global oil supplies - is rather remote.

In Ukraine, the conflict will likely become a localized disturbance in Ukraine's breakaway Eastern regions, rather than a full-blown conflict with wider ramifications. This is especially evident in view of Vladimir Putin's recent behavior. Just this week, he asked his rubber-stamp parliament to revoke his "right" to intervene militarily in Ukraine. A symbolic gesture? Yes. But the timing is important. It comes just as EU leaders gathered to discussed economic sanctions against Russia. With the Russian economy already growing at snail's pace (projections for growth in 2014 are below 1 pct), and faced with a wave of sanctions from his largest trading partner, Putin has given a clear sign that there is a pain threshold he does not wish to cross. Astute tactician he is, Putin is well aware that as economic hardship settles in, the pride over the Crimea annexation, as well as his own legitimacy, would evaporate very quickly. Long story short, further escalation in Ukraine is unlikely.

In Iraq, the potential of "hostile elements" controlling the country's oil infrastructure is real. But there are a number of mitigating factors. For one, the ISIS threat has achieved what years of multilateral talks have failed to do: bring the U.S. and Iran onto the same side. While the two countries remain locked in a dispute over the latter's nuclear program, they have already made some progress toward expanding mutual dialogue and reducing tensions, and the specter of a common enemy will likely accelerate that process. In addition, the energy revolution here at home, with the exploitation of fracking technology and shale gas reserves, has already brought the U.S. several steps closer to energy independence. As a result of both these factors, the fallout in the financial markets will in all probability be muted.

Of course, these developments can turn in the most unexpected ways, and the last thing we want to do is to become complacent and unplugged. But for now, they pose little danger to the "2013 detox" - the primary drivers of price moves will continue to be Yellen, Draghi, and the central banks. And these monetary authorities likely to keep the liquidity floodgates open for some time.

Market participants can turn their eyes back to Brazil for now ...