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Saturday, May 10, 2014

Do you have the gut to buy Russian oil company?

The Ukraine situation seems to get worse everyday since the crisis broke out and it has become very fluid and volatile. Maybe it will be last thing you would think to buy anything from Russia. But if you have the gut and can stomach the volatility, there may be a good opportunity lying in front of your eyes.

Gazprom (OGZPY) is the Russian largest oil company. In the past year, it has declined from its top of around $10 to as low as $6.35, an over 30% drop. As you may see from its chart below, it plunged in Mar due to the intensified Ukraine crisis but the funny thing happened in the past few weeks. As the Ukraine crisis seems becoming even more dangerous, Gazprom is moving higher. When a stock moves higher in a worsening situation, it often suggests that the worst for it has been over with all the bad news already priced in.  Looking at its key statistics, OGZPY is ridiculously cheap: P/E is at extremely low level of 2.45 and it is trading at a 70% discount to its book value. In other words, you are paying 30 cents for $1. It is also paying a 4.68% dividend.

Yes, it is unknown how the Ukraine crisis will end and it is expected that Gazprom's business with Ukraine and EU will likely be significantly impacted. But as it has been reported, Gazprom is discussing with China to export more oil and gas to the country. I'm pretty sure the business with China will be much more valuable for it in the long run, considering how much energy China desperately needs. As it is often said in the stock market: Good things do tend to happen to cheap stocks, I think it is worthwhile to consider to get some shares of OGZPY for the long-term when everyone runs away.


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