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Sunday, February 23, 2014

Create your own biotech mutual fund

I started to be interested in biotech stocks over 2 years ago. I was talking about Amgen and Vertex when they were around $54 and $45 respectively. Now Amgen is at $123 and Vertex $84. Actually you would be doing great if you simply put money into biotech back then. This is another big uptrend and will continue for years. So if you want to join the train, you may consider to create a self-made mutual fund for some small biotech stocks, which could also be the acquisition targets of other big biopharma companies. Let me be clear, small biotech stocks are very risky and you don't want to put too much money into just one or two stocks. Better to evenly distribute your money into a few promising biotechs, hoping some of them may bring you big winners. The following are some good ones with more advanced pipelines that big boys may likely be interested in.
  • Dynavax  (DVAX) has an anti-hepatitis B product in phase III studies, HELPLISAV. Dynavax has 18 issued U.S. patents in its portfolio and is also partnered with GlaxoSmithKline for an autoimmune program and with AstraZeneca for an asthma therapy. It is currently just trading at $1.70.
  • Ariad (ARIA) had already got a used-to-be very successful marketed product, Iclusig, an anti leukemia drug. However, it got crashed late last year since FDA pulled its leukemia drug off the market due to safety concerns for cardiovascular events. Due to strong demand from the patients who already used the drug, FDA allowed the drug back to the market last December with a new warning label, but the stock still hasn't fully bounced back from those devastating losses. The stock price is extremely depressed at the moment but it may quickly change its course to jump up if the sales of Iclusig exceed the expectation. There is a chance that some big players may take it over as Iclusig is still a great drug, especially if its dosing and schedule can be optimized to reduce its cardiac safety risk.
  • Acorda (ACOR) has already got three FDA-approved drugs in its portfolio with the biggest product for multiple sclerosis called Ampyra, which helps MS patients who have difficulty walking. MS market is huge and Acorda reported that Ampyra sales had risen by 13% through the first nine months of 2013.
  • Insmed Inc. (INSM) is mainly developing  inhalation therapies for the treatment of lung diseases. The most advanced product is called ARIKACE, which is in phase II trials in the US and phase III in Europe and Canada.  This is an inhaled antibiotic for patients suffering from cystic fibrosis and non-tuberculous mycobacteria.
  • Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX) is well known for its variety of products for viral and infectious diseases, especially for hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and HIV. Recently UBS analysts said IDIX was a possible takeover target in 2014 and rated it as a "buy". 
  • Portola  (PTLA) has a phase III product called betrixaban, which is for prophylaxis for venous thromboembolism(VTE). VTE is a very common problem in cancer patients but currently there is no approved treatment for VTE prophylaxis on the market. This could be a big attracting factor for potential buyers.  
  • Nektar (NKTR) has close to 10 late-stage products in its pipeline for cancer, infectious diseases, viruses, and diseases of the immune system. For many big pharmas that are inflicted with a huge headache of patent expiration for their blockbusters, Nektar could be very attractive to them.

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