Macro: The Bottom Line (12/31/2013)

As the year draws to a close, the markets have been largely quiet and devoid of liquidity. Rather than trying to read too much into what has happened over the past week, this is a good opportunity to reflect on the key themes to focus on in 2014. Here's our list of the top macro themes to look out for in the new year:

The Yellen Fed - No End to Easy Money: After the initial mayhem in the summer of 2013 (when bond yields were surging and most foreign currencies were in free fall vs. the dollar), markets have largely digested the reality of Fed tapering. The general consensus now is that the Fed will continue to reduce its monthly asset purchases (aka money printing) by increments of $10 billion, phasing out these purchases entirely by the summer of 2014. But as we've continued to stress, the Fed's determination to pursue tapering is not a result of a change of heart. No, it's merely a recognition that outright money printing is no longer an effective tool to boost growth and employment. Instead, the new term that you'll hear thrown around is "forward guidance," essentially the Fed committing itself to low rates for years to come. So in other words, the era of easy money will likely continue through 2014 and beyond, especially under the chairmanship of the uber-dovish Janet Yellen. Don't go rushing into the dollar, and don't give up gold for dead just yet. 

EUR and JPY - Fight the Central Banks at Your Own Peril: For a few months now, we've been warning about further weakness in the euro (EUR) and Japanese yen (JPY) going forward. As a reminder, our bearishness stems from our view that neither the European Central Bank nor the Bank of Japan would be able to resist the temptation to dabble in more activist monetary policy. Both the euro area and Japan face structural economic issues that have yet to be addressed by policymakers, and the mid-year momentum that we saw in both economies could sputter (in fact, it already has in Europe, where growth slowed to a mere 0.1% in 3Q 2013). With fiscal policy constrained (including a doubling of the sales tax in Japan), and reform efforts lacking at best, the most user-friendly option for both countries would be money printing.

Emerging Markets - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Since the early 2000s, markets have in many ways treated the term "emerging markets" as though it was a monolithic concept. China, Brazil, Hungary, South Africa ... all these mid-income economies became investor darlings, one way or another, especially after the Fed turned on the money-printing tap in 2009. However, starting in late 2013, we've seen that this is no longer true - the days when investors piled into everything with an "EM" label on its are over. Instead, you'll see greater scrutiny of individual emerging economies, and greater differentiation between the good, the bad, and the ugly. On the "good" side, you have countries that are actively reforming their economic structures for the better. Mexico, with its oil-sector liberalization (as we've written about previously), is a prime example. China, thanks to its recent land-rights reforms, would arguably also belong under the "goods" as well (even though its opaque financial system looks prone to risks). The "bads" feature Mexico's main rival in Latin America, Brazil. After serving as an investor magnet for years, Brazil's structural problems (ranging from stifling bureaucracy and poor infrastructure to labyrinthine tax and labor laws) are now condemning the country to a shameful 1-3% growth rate. The "uglies" consists of Turkey, Indonesia, and South Africa - among many others - all suffering from a combination of structural distortions and heavy dependence on foreign capital. In 2014, expect these differences to play out even more, and the term "emerging market" to take on a new meaning.  

Geopolitical Hotspots: Aside from the much-reported tensions in Egypt, Ukraine, and Thailand (all of which have captured global headlines but have had a rather contained effect on markets), there are two main hotspots to look out for. The first is the East China Sea, where the escalating tensions between China and Japan (the world's 2nd and 3rd largest economies, with $300 billion in annual bilateral trade) risk having ripple effect far beyond the region. The second is Iran, where 2014 will be crucial in determining whether the initial signs of detente will pave the way for a lasting deal on the country's nuclear ambitions. Either way, the ramifications on oil prices could be significant.

We from the Macro team at Red Bull wish you a Happy New Year and all the best in 2014!