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Sunday, November 24, 2013

My cool feet have cost me dearly

Sturm, Ruger & Company (RGR), founded in 1949, is the biggest gun maker in the US by sales. Sturm produces hundreds of thousands of firearms annually for hunting, target shooting, collecting, self-defense, law enforcement, and government agencies. With a market cap of $1.4 billion, RGR trades over $75 a share and a PE of 14.5, which is still cheaper than the overall market's ratio of about 15. It has a 16% profit margin and a return on shareholders' equity of an  eye-opening 64%. It is paying a 3.10% dividend even at this high price and may be one of the best dividend paying companies at the moment, considering its booming business and relatively cheap valuation.

I wish I had known this long before today and had not let this cash cow slip away from my fingers. Unfortunately my cold feet cost me dearly. Shortly after the financial crash in 2008, I saw an analysis about RGR, the first time I had heard about it. It was said that gun sales would likely go up much more during the financial turmoil and the coming US policy on gun control could further triggered people to rush to buy guns before too late. I figured that this did make a lot of sense and I used naked puts to have actually obtained RGR at a very good price, around $10 (red circle below). However, in the next few months, RGR did not behavior as what I had expected and even went under water for a while. I got cold feet and lost patience as well. So I sold it with a little bit profit when it bounced back a little. Since then everything has become history for me. If I could stick to this great company, even during its difficult time period, I'd have made a fortunate on it. I have really missed a huge pile of money, almost 8 times the cost I paid and I would have earned probably over 15% of its dividend based on my initial cost. DAMN IT!

Don't repeat my mistake and for companies with sound business fundamentals, stick to it even during their difficult time periods. I hope RGR will correct significantly soon so that I can get it again for years to come.

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