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Saturday, June 22, 2013

Is S&P repeating itself for a similar crash in 1998?

With the markets crashed over 3% in a single day yesterday, I should feel like a genius for moving out a substantial amount of money from stock funds to cash in my 401K just days before. Of course it purely a coincidence and luck but as you know, I did say that something big could be coming. Actually I'm afraid that this is just the beginning of a belated significant correction in the stock market. S&P500 has slipped down through its 50 day moving average, which is often indicating a change of trend. Of course it won't be a straight line declining. On the contrary, it is likely S&P500 will bounce back to challenge its 50 DMA next week. The question is, will it be successful in holding up its uptrend? I just saw a blog, which presented an amazingly similar pattern of the S&P500 current price curve as compared to its curve in 1998 (see below), when the market crashed 20% that year (See details here). Apparently I don't know what will happen next and if S&P will follow exactly the footstep of its 1998 history. But people often say history tends to repeat itself. So just be aware of this possibility and be prepared accordingly. If you have too much in stocks, maybe it is the time to at least trim down a bit.

 
 
 

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