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Sunday, June 23, 2013

Buy Treasury bonds as a short-term speculation

As I have talked a lot lately about the US government bonds, you must have known that the long-term Treasury bonds have crashed in the past month with its yield shooting up to moon. The red line below is the ETF (TLT) for the 20-year Treasury bonds, which is almost a straight line down. On the contrary, the inverse ETFs, TBF and TBT (2 x leverage) have jumped up nicely.  While in the long run, the Treasury bonds will definitely go further down, a lot more down, the question is: will it simply go down from here without looking back? I highly doubt. Don't forget, Benanke will not allow it to happen so easily, as the increasing interest rate is simply too damaging to the US economy. I think too many people have jumped to one side of the boat too fast too soon. I think it is highly likely that the Treasury bonds will bounce back strongly in the near term and the interest rate will come down from the moon soon. If this is indeed the case, then a logic speculation is to long the Treasury bond. One can either buy TLT or its call options,  or short TBF/TBT with their put options.


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