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Friday, November 30, 2012

If you like gambling, buy this gaming giant

I was a bit bullish about the Chinese stock markets and thought it would have bottomed a few weeks ago. Too early a call. As I said, if the Shanghai Composite Index could not hold the 2000 level, then more decline was ahead. The Shanghai index is around 1980, a clear bearish sign for the Chinese markets. But this may not be bad if you are looking for bargain stocks related to China. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) is one of them.  

While Wynn is an American giant gaming company, it derives nearly 75% of its revenue from Macau (the Las Vegas of China). Well, it is facing a lot of headwinds lately due to concerns over an economic slowdown in China. Its share price has been slammed & declined over 15% in the past few weeks. Well, not everyone is so bearish about Wynn. JPMorgan, the investment bank, has just issued an analysis report, which sounds quite bullish on Wynn. Here is the excerpt from JP's report published in Barron's:

At current levels for each stock, what is implied in Wynn 's (ticker: WYNN) market cap, once backing out its interest in Wynn Macau, is a negative value (though, admittedly, it's a modest negative value). Wynn's stake in Wynn Macau is $10.957 billion, while its (Wynn's) market cap is $10.923 billion, giving no value for its Macau royalty stream and Las Vegas Strip earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda), and certainly not a ton of value for its Cotai project [in Macau].

In other words, the intrinsic value of Wynn has been largely underestimated. If people start to realize that, then Wynn's share price will go up accordingly. Per JP, Wynn should have a price of $133 instead of $112 (the current share price).

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