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Sunday, November 11, 2012

Home depot is too much ahead of itself

I thought Home Depot (HD) was a good buy a year ago when it was trading around $40. I called it a diamond in the rough. Since that call, HD has advanced 50% up with its current price at around $60. This is a great gain by any standard. If you indeed bought HD, you may consider to sell it now by taking your good profit. Why? Because I think HD has gone way too much ahead of itself. People have got too excited about it by ignoring its valuation. When you buy something, you don't want to pay too much, regardless how good that thing is, do you? Look at two charts of HD below.

The first one is a historical price chart for HD. You may notice that the current HD price has reached the same level as it was in early 2000, the highest in its whole history. You must know that this was the time of the peak of the whole stock market in its huge bubble before bursting and crashing. This chart also presents an important technical warning sign: the double top. Unless HD can further go up, which I highly doubt, the double top often signals the downward turning point for a stock. I think this will likely happen for HD.


The following chart shows the momentum indicator (MACD) (the bottom part). While the stock price is moving up, MACD is showing a downward trend, a divergent trend often indicating that the current trend is weak and will likely turn to the opposite direction. In addition, HD's P/E ratio is 21, way too expensive for it. It is also too high away from its 200 day moving average (the green line).  Taken all the signals together, I'm hearing a loud warning siren. Not only will I get out of HD as soon as possible, I will also be willing to short it via put options, if you know how to do it.

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