It is a pure speculation but there is a good chance that some good news may be reported on Aug 28 by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS; stock ticker: BMY), which may move the BMS stock price by 5% or so. BMS in partnership with Pfizer is developing a drug, called apixaban (Eliquis), which is a new bloodthinner for preventing strokes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), a very common and dangerous disease. It is reported that the AF stroke prevention market is estimated at $9 billion-a-year. A successful apixaban will mean another multibillion-dollar drug for BMS and Pfizer. Right now, the golden standard treatment for this disease is a decades-old drug, warfarin, which is notorious for its risk to cause severe bleeding.
BMS is conducting a huge study involving close to 20,000 patients. In June BMS reported that apixaban was better and safer than warfarin in preventing strokes in patients with AF. BMS will report more details on the study at the European Society of Cardiology annual meeting in Paris this coming Sunday. If the results are reported as expected, it could be the first oral anticoagulant that is associated with statistically significant improvement in mortality over warfarin in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. This will lead to a jump in its sales forecasts. Given a much smaller company size for BMS, I think there will likely be a much better positive reaction for the BMS stock price. A 5% or so jump is probable.
But let's be clear: this is a pure speculation as no one knows for sure what kind of results BMS will report. Even it is positive, if it dose not totally meet the market expectation, it may still be considered negative and may even dampen its price. So trade wisely if you want to take the risk.
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