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Sunday, April 24, 2011

Buy it when everyone hates it

If you look at the tech stocks  nowadays, probably the most hated company in the wall street is Cisco (CSCO). Since its peak and ensuing crash around 2000, Cisco has been basically doing nothing in the past 10 years in terms of its stock price. Apparently no one wants it; actually even you can say everyone hates it. However, in the stock market, the real money is made when no one notices it. As I said, one of the successful investing features is being LONELY. I think now is the time to put money into this hated and forgotten stock. I like Cisco based on a few factors:
  • Cisco is the dominating company in the Internet world. Knowing it or without knowing it, you cannot survive without its products if you have to use the Internet. You can call Cisco the Internet plumber. Without its routers and switches, there is simply no Internet, period. Of course, its business goes way beyond routers and switches and it is well prepared for the new products and services required for the ever evolving Internet.
  • While its stock price has been doing nothing in the past 10 years, its business has thrived with increasing earnings, sales, and cash flow. With increasing earnings without stock price appreciation, that is exactly why the stock becomes so cheap. 
  • Of course, it is not the reason to buy a stock simply because it is cheap. For a long-term investment, you want to get a business which is great, reliable and financially strong. Cisco is just like that. Its balance sheet is just like a financial fortress with nearly 40 billion of cash. Its net cash after deduction of its debt is well over 20 billion. Given that its business gushing in so much cash, Cisco's financial situation will only becomes much stronger. With so much cash in hand, it has recently announced that it will start to pay dividends at about 1.4% with its current stock price. This is likely increasing year after year, similar to all other great businesses. This is a dream coming true for long-term investors, if you can lock in a super cheap price of a stock and enjoy ever increasing fixed income year after year along with thickening dividend payout. This is how Warren Buffet becomes so rich.
To me, at $17 per share, Cisco is a huge discount and should be one of the stocks in everyone's retirement portfolio. And don't forget to reinvest its dividends via DRIP!

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