Happy New Year!
Today is a very special day, probably once in a thousand years: The first day of the year, the first day of the month and the first day of the week. Similarly yesterday was also a special day: the last day of the year, the last day of the month and the last day of the week! As such, let's celebrate this special new year day by wishing all of us having an especially prosperous 2024 with all the peace, health and wealth as we wish to have!!
To avoid being trapped in a frothy market that is showing an extreme calm before storm, let me share a note from a professional about the current market status:
As noted yesterday on Twitter/X, our composite index of retail and institutional sentiment as compared to the volatility index, is at a reading higher than we saw in July when the market peaked. The subsequent correction clipped 10% off the markets. Will this time be different? While high sentiment readings do not necessarily mean the market will correct by 10%, it does suggest that at least a short-term correction to reduce the overbought condition is likely.
With momentum and sentiment firmly intact, there seems little to keep the market from rising for now. However, we will likely see some of the froth come off in January.
Lance Roberts
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