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Friday, September 9, 2011

Greece may default within days

Euro finally broke its tight trading range between $1.40 to $1.45 in the past few months and got smashed hard today. It is around $1.36 today. The Eurozone debt crisis is accelerating and worsening in the light speed now. I may be too pessimistic but I think Greece may default within days, even as soon as this weekend. This will send a huge shock wave across the world. You probably have already felt it today via the severe market plummeting.

It is reported that the German government is making an emergency plan that involves measures to help banks and insurers that face a possible 50 percent loss on their Greek bonds if Greece defaults. I feel more convinced that this fatal event is coming when I heard that the Greek financial minister came out today, saying that Greece would not default. When a governmental officer says that something won't happen, it usually means that the crisis is imminent and will almost for sure happen very soon. I think Greece is just on the brink of collapse!

I hope you have already got some positions with EUO to short Euro. Maybe too late for me to add new positions but if there is a dead cat bounce for Euro in the next few days, e.g. if it appreciates to $1.40 or so, I will add more EUO.

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