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Thursday, September 15, 2011

A wihpsaw market to be cautious about

I have been tied up with full day meetings in the past several days with evening activities, therefore no time to really sat down. Looking back what has happened in the market, it is just like a schizophrenia patient with whipsaw movements. One day he is depressed, the next day he is happy again. Don't be fooled into believing that the worst time has been over yet. You may likely regret if you do so. I'd rather be sitting sidelines to wait for a clear direction to show up before taking any sizable actions.

I noticed that Euro seems bouncing back. I'm really amazed by the "investors" who would simply believe what the German and French leaders, Merkel and Sarkozy, have said with a hollow joint statement that they believe Greece will stay in the Eurozone. It means nothing to me to suggest that the situation is improving in any way. Rather it simply means that the debt crisis has fallen into a state of greatest possible uncertainty, for which they must come out to say something to calm the market. Actually more signs that the Eurozone is having a huge mess, so bleak that their bank deposits are flying away. The most concerning part is that this is not only happening for Greek banks, but also for German and French banks, a truly EU wide deposit flight.

Technically speaking, this kind of price action is nothing unexpected. Whenever something is falling too fast too soon, it will usually bounce back to its resistance line, which was its previous support line. For Euro, it is the price at around US$1.40. Those who were foolish enough to buy Euro these days would like be the weak hands, who will be the first ones to be shaken out when the Euro resume its downtrend. As I said, I'm waiting for the moment if it comes and will jump in to short Euro more with EUO if it hits $1.40 or above again. To me, it is free money, for which I must go to pick it up.

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