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Saturday, September 24, 2011

Carnage for gold and silver

A drop of 10% and 15%, respectively, in a day for gold and silver is a carnage. Needlessly to say, it is painful for anyone who holds them. I'm one of those. However, over years I have learned that this pain is something you have to take if you want to really be successful in joining the gold and silver booming trend. No other way around. As I said before, the gold bull does not like publicity. It wants to shake out weak hands before it launches ahead again. Volatility, sometimes extreme, is just a normal part of the bull course for gold and silver.

So why did gold and silver plunge so much these days? 
- As I have said before, the US$ is likely getting stronger, which will bring down the prices of commodities, including gold and silver. This is what is happening now.
- Hedge funds were selling their positions in gold to raise cash to meet increased capital demands for their borrowings from Wall Street banks as the assets they have put up as collateral, like other commodities or stocks, have declined sharply in value.
- Even banks, especially European ones, could be also selling gold to raise their capital, given what a messy situation they are currently in.
- Most interestingly, I have seen reports with reliable evidence claiming that big banks, especially JPMorgan, are manipulating the prices of gold and silver, since they have too much short positions and losing a big time with this wrong betting. They want to bring them down so that they can lose less. There is even a lawsuit ongoing against JPMorgan about their manipulation.

So is this correction over? I said before that I expected this gold correction could bring it down to $1600s. Yesterday, it touched as low as $1630 or so. Gold has a very strong support level at $1522, its 200 day moving average. There is a chance that gold may go down another $100 to finish this correction course, although I'm not saying it will happen for sure. For silver, I have said and actually am hoping that it will decline to low $20s. Silver has breached a major support line at around $33.5 and briefly touched $29 yesterday. It may bounce back to this resistance line in the next few days but I think there is a good chance that it will drop further to $20s. I start to get back in to take the advantage of the cheaper prices but more serious buying will begin when they plummet further, especially when I hear more people crying that this bull market for gold and silver is over. That's the time of capitulation and the time of real bottom.  

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