A new high in sight?

Due to some private reason with an emergent travel involved, I was away for three weeks without being able to actively watch and comment on the markets. Seems the market has done a lot but did it? Not really. Not only in the past three weeks but  for the whole past month or so, the S&P was just stuck in a very clearly defined range, a 100 points wide (2840 to 2940ish). That's why it was felt moving a lot but in reality nothing at all. The sentiment in August was extremely nervous and depressing, which was actually a bullish sign. That’s why I was betting to see S&P break out through the upend of the range, i.e. breaking out the 2940 level and going to move towards the all time high. The breakout happened on Wed with a follow through on Thu and today. Strictly by TA, S&P should have no problem to at least go up toward 3020ish. If with more strength, it may even try to challenge all time high around 3050ish. But can it break it out and make all time highs this time? Don’t bet on it, at least for now. I think it is more likely to back down again with another hard drop in late Sep or Oct. That's how I'm expecting the market to do in the weeks ahead. There are simply too many bearish signs embedded at the moment. One big divergence that makes it less likely to have all time highs soon is the ugly TA setups for the famous FAANG stocks, which were the major driving force to push the market up in the past few years. Now they are all fading at least technically. I don’t have the time to run their charts here but they are not looking bullish at all now. That’s one of the major reasons why I don’t believe we will see all time highs soon or even with a new high reached, likely a fake one that will fade soon after.

It is not the time to be too bullish even if the market seems marching high vigorously! Trading for either direction is still a better way for the current market.