This is what I sent to my group this morning:
It's indeed looking like a "good news is bad news" day for the market, if the selloff holds for today. I do believe we may see a bit more selloff towards the end of day. Of course, bulls can always argue that a little bit selloff is actually more bullish as it can alleviate some overbought condition. It is a valid argument indeed and I won't just say today's selloff is overly bearish. But the thing is, Wed's strong rally has put all the important indicators into the extreme overbought end and as I have said the VIX indicator is 100% reliable in the past year or so for a turning point and it is playing out exactly as I said again. Playing long for VIX is a much better way at the moment, which is what I'm doing. I think more pain is still ahead. Taking off profits with raising more cash is a better position at the moment for most people and for more aggressive traders, playing the short side is more prudent as far as I'm concerned!
Well, the end of day more selloff didn't come and the market has actually recovered most of the early losses. Bullish? You can argue for it but not me. I still think the market is poised for a more severe selloff in the weeks ahead before talking about a more sustainable leg up. The selloff today with a bit VIX rebound has finalized a not so common but virtually 100% reliable market selloff warning sign: VIX closed back inside its lower BB after being dropping below the BB in the past 2 trading days. This is an important and reliable indicator that you should not ignore, folks! Adding to this strong market selloff indicator is the Put/Call ratio. It dipped below 0.8 Wed, a hallmark of too complacent, which is bearish from the contrarian perspective. Whenever P/C ratio is below 0.8, it often triggers at least a short-term selloff to punish those who are overly bullish for the time being. Putting these two major momentum indicators together, pointing to a turning point to the downside, I won't feel comfortable with being long for the moment. I obviously don't know yet for how long this bearish setup will play out, if I'm right but I won't be surprised to see a multi weeks long correction phase in the summer towards Oct. Seasonally it is not a good time for the market in general. Let's see if I'm getting this right.
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