What a week!

How precisely one can expect for a market prediction? Five days ago on Monday, I predicted: I’m willing to bet that S&P may close below 2840 by end of this week before challenging new highs. If the firework plays out more violently, we may even see S&P below 2800 before marching onto to new highs in the next few weeks. Immediately the market continued to march higher with another 10+ points for S&P and within a spit of distance to its all time high (about 10 points away). The most of the week the market was rather bullish and appeared to have no sign to break down whatsoever. I was ready to raise my hands to wipe out eggs on my face. I was kicking myself why I should make such an exact prediction which was almost suicidal!😵 Then all the sudden today, the last day of this week, the market seems just want to prove that I'm right by plummeting 20 points to close below 2840 precisely. My suicide was saved!😇


This sudden mini crash seems to come from nowhere and the culprit was reported as due to the Turkish turmoil, a rather convenient explanation. Certainly this is the direct reason to cause the decline on the surface, but in reality as I said before, the market can always find a good reason to either jump or tank when it is at its extremes either way. If not the Turkish problem, it would be something else for sure as technically the market has to come down first before going any further up when it has been extremely complacent with a rather overbought status in the short term. I doubt it would just only be an one day decline and I won't be surprised to see it drop below 2800 (probably towards 2775ish) next week!


I was betting for a close below 2840 for S&P actually early this week using a bearish call spread (2840-2845). All the week it was purely under the water till this morning. Honestly I wish I could hold it till closing for a nice full profit but the market has been too unpredictable these days and I was afraid my trade would slip into negative again if S&P did not close below 2840. So I placed an order to close it  with about a half profit. It got filled this morning. While at a hindsight it was premature, as a trader it is better to be safe than sorry!