A conspiracy theory

“USA is wining the trade war”, Mohamed El-Erian said at a CNBC interview early this week. Who is El-Erian? Here is the short introduction about him: 

Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian American businessman. He is chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007-2014). He was the CEO and President of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard's endowment and related accounts. He served as a member of the faculty of Harvard Business School. He is currently a member of the Harvard Global Advisory Council.

Apparently he is not just someone in the financial world, he is one of the top thinkers that you need to pay attention to when he talks. Accidentally he used to be my son’s “boss” at PIMCO, of course not the direct boss. Per my son, he is really very smart in economic issues. What I found interesting in this interview is that he was almost repeating exactly what I have said in my blog just posted two days before his interview. I almost felt he had read and “stolen” my idea on the trade war topic!😅😅

Joking aside, I have never believed, as you know, any serious trade war to be materialized. Now, I just read an interesting conspiracy theory about why Trump wanted to initiate this seemingly very aggressive trade war type of battles with all the major trading partners around the world. According to this theory, Trump is just trying to help Republicans to win the mid-term election. Here is how it works: Trump to start the tariff fight with all the major partners and make it escalated to the level of trade wars. The market got nervous enough to tank and be very volatile for a few months, just like what we are seeing now. Then all the sudden Trump starts to seal some major trading deals prior to the Nov election, which will make the depressed market so happy that it will start to jump to the extent of euphoria. The result? We will see new highs later in the summer and people are so elated that more people will vote for Trump’s party, Republican. And both houses will still be controlled by GOP! What a perfect conspiracy theory! Very logic actually!

Well, I of course don’t know if this is really what Trump is doing. At least Trump did not tell me that when I talked to him last time😎😎...But you should know that I won’t be surprised to see some major trading deals to come in the weeks ahead as this is something I have being talking about since the very beginning. The EU is likely in serious discussions with the Trump administration on zero tariff on cars, which by itself is a huge deal beneficial to both parties but more for the US for sure. If that happens, more will likely follow, like a domino effect! This is something that I do believe is coming. Don’t be surprised for this “conspiracy” to become true, if you are too concerned about the trade war, friends!