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Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Stocks are poised for a swift decline

The market has been hitting new highs almost daily and there is widespread complacence that any significant decline seems unthinkable. But I think the market is now sending 2 warning signs:
  • Vix call/put ratio hits extremely high level, over 20 times more expensive for calls than puts. This has been a pretty accurate indicator in the past year, usually leading to a jump of volatility with a quick market correction.
  • The high yield bonds are breaking down and currently sitting on its 50 DMA. If breaking down that level, more selling will follow. Usually such bonds are leading the market by a few days to weeks.
When these two lining together, it is not a good sign, at least for the near term. I think the market can suddenly plunge any days now. How much is anyone's guess, but at least some panic may show up. Be ready!

1 comment:

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