A ugly picture for Nvidia

Nvidia (NVDA) has been the Street darling for a couple of years and is still very much so. Of course, by no means I doubt about its business and you can count me to agree that this is a great company that has very bright future. But it does not mean its stock is a good buy at any time. More often than not, momentum stocks will go way ahead of itself and the risk of buying may significantly increase if you chase such stocks at the wrong time. Nvidia is at such a moment. Almost from all angels, NVDA may likely experience some sort of crash in the near term. Fundamentally, with a P/E over 50, it is kind of nose-bleeding expensive. But more worrisome is its very ugly technical picture. As you can see below, it is very overbought per RSI with a downward momentum MACD. It is showing a text-book style of head-shoulders pattern and if it can have any meaningful bounce back, it will likely create a double top shape. All of them are quite bearish.  Then the tech stock index Nasdaq as a whole looks like shaping up as a top going into a seasonal bearish time period. I think NVDA will be heading much lower from here and a 15-20% correction is in the card.