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Saturday, April 29, 2017

This country may benefit most from the French presidency election


The global markets have got a huge boost in the passing week due to an avoidance of a perceived disastrous result of the first round French presidency election as there was a high fear that the worst pair of both extreme-right and extreme-left candidates could win the first round that would put EU at a huge risk of collapse. Now at least based on the initial results that suggest that the pro-EU candidate, Macron, may likely win the second round on May 7, the EU seems to have a more solid footing now. All the EU member countries should benefit from this prospect, but the one benefiting most is probably the one that is the weakest link which purely relies on the EU to survive. That’s it, Greece! Think about it, Greece is quickly approaching to the next life-support negotiation within EU to get the next round of funds to allow it to survive! No need to say that no one is so much looking for a stable EU than Greece. For sure the favorable French election has made the Greek stock market jump higher. But actually it seems that the market has already foreseen this result as the Greek stock market, by using the ETF GREK, has already quietly started a clear uptrend since the beginning of the year after hitting its all time low at <$6. Since then, it has gone up over 30% and is trading above $8. Technically it is showing a good strength supported by its momentum, breaking out a year long downward trend.  As long as there is no surprise on May 7 from the final round election result in France. GREK should continue with its uptrend and probably move a lot higher from here!  Of course, the French election on May 7 may also turn it down quickly if Macron dose not win. So trade accordingly!

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