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Saturday, December 24, 2016

You rarely see such a bullish indicator

In contrast to my concern on a correction of the market that may occur soon, there is one area I'm increasingly bullish at least in the short term. I talked about this idea a couple of weeks ago, that is going long for Treasury bonds. I know it hasn't worked out as I was expecting but I think it will soon. Apart from the increasing technical strength Treasury is showing, another major bullish indicator is coming from the "smart money", the commercial traders who are often at the right side of their bet. While Treasury bonds have been relentlessly beaten up for over a month now and all the speculating traders (the dumb money) are supper bearish betting for continuing uptrend of the long-term interest rates, the commercial money has rarely shown an extremely high quantity of long positions for Treasury per the COT report. More often than not, the smart money usually wins in the battle. I think this time it will be the same as well. I'm still in the long position for Treasury bonds, at least for the near term.

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