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Thursday, April 14, 2016

Panic buying is ongoing


The Bollinger Bands define the most likely trading range for any stock or index. Trading outside BB indicates extremes and a reversal is usually followed. When a stock goes below the lower BB, it often suggests an intermediate term bottom and vice versa if above its upper BB, it is topping at least for the near term.  For individual stocks you often see this kind of extremes either way.   While you may often see panic selling for S&P, pushing it down outside its lower BB, you rarely see S&P go beyond its upper BB. We saw it on Wed’s strong rally. In other words, we are now seeing a very rare event for S&P suggesting kind of panic buying at the moment. While the music may continue for a while, it is an extremely dangerous sign that the music may stop any time from here.  I really believe the market is playing out the exact same script as last Oct when S&P was flirting around its all time high of 2130 before crashing. See what I said at that time here.


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