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Sunday, October 4, 2015

Enjoy a sweetie year end

Believe or not, the commercially busiest season of the year is quickly approaching and Santa Claus has already started to greet you in many malls. So what is a good gift loved by most of people? Many but chocolate is definitely one of them. Just go to Costco or Walmart or any grocery store, chocolate is certainly one of the those gifts placed at the busy traffic lines. Given the brutal stock plunging in the past couple of months, I think you may consider to buy some chocolate stocks as your own year end gift.

The stock I love most is Hershey (HSY). This company has over a century history, which means it has gone through all kinds of tough economic or political turmoil, such as great depression in 1929, oil crisis in 1973, black Monday stock market crash in 1987, dot.com tech stock crash in 2000 and latest financial crisis in 2008. Regardless how challenging the world economy is, people will still buy and eat chocolate and Hershey, the most famous US chocolate brand has only become stronger and stronger fundamentally. The thing many people don't realize is its efficiency of business investment.  Do you think HSY requires a lot of capital investment for new technology for its products? Hardly anything meaningful relatively speaking, since for centuries, the processing and manufacturing of chocolate remains largely similar but of course some good improvement has certainly been made. However, proportionally against its revenue, such new capital investment required for improving manufacturing could virtually be ignored. Largely due to this reason, HSY is generating a lot of free cash, which has been used to reward investors for decades via increasing dividends and stock share buy-back. Hershey is a stock you can own and probably forget about it for life as long as you buy it at good prices and reinvest its dividends. Right now, it is probably a good time to pick up few shares of HSY. It is not super cheap but it has "crashed" almost 20% lately thanks to the market turmoil. Not only that, if you look at its price curve for the last 5 years, you may notice that HSY typically starts to move up quite handsomely during the last quarter and into the new year period. This is consistently with its best business seasons for Halloween and Christmas.  So even from the trading perspective, buying HSY now is likely a good idea.

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