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Saturday, May 16, 2015

This world giant retailer is in a sweet spot

I guess I don't need to talk too much about Walmart (WMT), the world largest retailer. It is a great and dominating business that has been very successful in the past several decades and it has been treating investors really well, although it is also one of the most hated companies. It gushes out a lot of money and pays investors with increasing dividends for years. In average, its dividends grow over 20% annually. This kind of stock can indeed make you really rich as long as you are patient and keep going with it for long. Now, WMT is in a sweet spot from the valuation and technical perspectives. No question that WMT is facing a lot of challenges, most notably the e-commerce with fast growing on-line shopping. The dollar stores are also a big challenge for it. But the thing is you won't get any chance to buy it cheap if a great company is doing everything great. The significant difficulties WMT faces have brought down its share price quite a lot recently and at the moment it is sitting right at its long-term strong support line.

While WMT is a bit struggling right now, I really don't worry about it in the long run. It will try its best to adapt to the new business environment and survive well. The recent 2 moves by WMT has further convinced me that it will overcome the challenges successfully: WMT is introducing a $50 per year service for unlimited online delivery that will directly compete with Amazon; and WMT is teaming up with Alibaba for its online business.

As a sidebar consideration, WMT will likely fare much better than other stocks if the market goes down in a severe correction, which is what I'm expecting for some time now. The best example is to look at what WMT did during the financial crisis in 2008/2009. When the whole market was crashing like a hell, WMT was among a very few that were doing quite well. This is the stock people will rush into as a safe heaven when in panic. I feel good about WMT at this price.

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