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Thursday, March 12, 2015
Put your money in emerging markets now
It is a contrarian call and right now people are running
away from other countries’ stocks but only interested in the US stocks. There
is a good reason of course that in the current global landscape, it seems only
the US is expanding economically and all the others are contracting. But that’s
really where the value comes in. You won’t find good values when there is
euphoria and everything looks rosy. You will only find good values when there
is depression and blood in the streets. Think about early 2009 when it seems
the world was falling apart and the end of world was coming. I can bet 99% of
people would not even want to talk about stocks at that time, not to mention
putting money into it. But that was exactly the best time to buy stocks! We are
now approaching this moment for the emerging markets. When you look all the
metrics of valuation for stocks, it is simply much cheaper all around in the
emerging markets: PE, price-to-book-values, and dividend yields. Of course I
cannot tell you now we are seeing the absolute bottom but there no such thing
that you can be absolute sure to pick up the real bottom in advance. It will
only become clear after it has happened. My gut feeling is that we are very
close to the bottom of the abysm if not yet there. If you are taking a long-term
approach, I think now is the time to start to pick up shares of the emerging
markets with the understanding that it will be volatile. It is always more
risky to try to only focus on one or a few specific countries. It would be much
easier and safer to invest in the overall emerging market ETF. Just simply one
click via EEM can do it!
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