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Friday, October 25, 2013

The death of the Euro

We are heading to Panama for vacation today. Just a quick note about Euro.

I have lost track how many times I've talked about Euro here and predicted it will fall apart within years. I have traded several times with quite some profits taken. The latest time I talked about it was probably this one. Well you have probably also noticed that Euro has become stronger these days against the US$, $1.38 at the moment. Does this mean the Eurozone countries have solved their crisis effectively, which is then reflected in the euro? Not a chance! According to Citigroup, the slight rebound in Europe over the summer will not be enough to stop the Eurozone going from bad to worse, with a string of soft defaults/restructurings. Citi is forecasting Greek devastation and unstoppable debt spirals in Italy and Portugal

To me Euro is still a dying currency, just a matter of time. No need to simply believe me, but see what other people, especially those from the Eurozone, have thought about the situation:

An astonishing new book by François Heisbourg – La Fin du Rêve Européen (The end of the European dream) – argues that the "euro cancer" must be cut out to save the rest of the EU Project before it is too late.
"The dream has given way to nightmare. We must face the reality that the EU itself is now threatened by the euro. The current efforts to save it are endangering the Union yet further," he writes.

Yes, Euro is appreciating against the US$. But this is just like two types of toilet paper competing to see which one will go to the toilet first. Sooner or later, both of them will go. Right now, people got tired of the US$ due to endless problems associated with it. But it is no better with Euro. I'm sticking to the gun that I will short Euro again. The current poor sentiment for US$ will push Euro up further. However, the higher it goes, the better profit one may get.  I'm just waiting for the another extreme to come before pulling the trigger. I will let you know.

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