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Sunday, July 14, 2013

I wish I had taken a 3400% ride with Sirius XM Radio

Sirius XM (SIRI) is a subscription-based satellite radio service that currently offers music as well as exclusive shows and content.It hires a very popular star host, Howard Stern, who attracts over 12 million listeners per week. About 6-7 years ago when SIRI was trading around $10, I shorted SIRI because it was very expensive. It was a good trade as SIRI did declined substantially and I made some money. I then moved on and did not follow it. But if you look back at its price movements in the past years, SIRI got totally crashed during the financial crisis in 2009 and its stock price went down as low as $0.10; yes, it is not a typo, it was 10 cents. Since then however, SIRI stocks did something amazing: it has come back to a 5-year high of over $3.6 recently. This is a gin of 35 times or 3500%! I wish I was smart enough to have bought it at $0.10. Right now SIRI is trading at a P/E of 7.4, reasonable valuation. It is generating a lot of free cash flow and is buying back a big amount of its own stocks. Sirius is aggressive in expanding its business into the new-car market and is also trying to penetrating more into the used-car market. At the moment, SIRI is challenging its 5-year high of $3.65. If it can break up this resistance level, there is a good chance that SIRI will go up much higher.


 

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