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Thursday, August 30, 2012

My bold prediction: A big down day tomorrow

Prediction of short-term market direction is generally a fool's game. A predition of next day's market up or down is even stupid. But I'd like to make a bold prediction that we will see a big down day tomorrow. Why?

Not sure if you have noticed that the market has been especially resilient in the past few weeks, trading in a very narrow range. Almost everyone is predicting that Bernanke will announce QE3 to stimulate the economy at his Jackson Hole speech. This has supported the overall market, especially the commodities, quite strongly. Now the day is coming, that tomorrow Bernanke will speak to central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

But when everyone is betting on the same thing, often than not it will be a disappointment. That's the basis of my prediction: I don't believe Bernanke will announce QE3 tomorrow, which will profoudly disappoint the market, causing a huge sell off. Precious metals may be the most hit sector if I'm correct. However, any severe sell off will be great buying opportunities for the near future. Get your money ready to work.

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